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Episode 1214: The Three-Time Tommy John
Date May 10, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter (and answer listener emails) about podcast personas, Dylan Bundy’s bad day, players’ favorite stats and a Joc Pederson conundrum, James Paxton and the recent rash of near-no-hitters, how scoring has bounced back from its slow start, the Reds’ and Mets’ Matt Harvey trade, the Robinson Cano contract so far, and things about baseball that are harder than they look, plus a Stat Blast about switch hitters. Then they talk to 33-year-old Rays reliever Jonny Venters (46:10) about his incredible comeback from repeated Tommy John surgeries, how the game changed while he was rehabbing, his heavy workloads, his record groundball rate, the mental toll of trying to return, why he stuck with Tampa Bay, and more. Topics * Dylan Bundy * Players favorite stats * Tim Lincecom glove loss * No hitters through…. * James Paxton * Switch hitters * Mets and Reds trade * Shohei Ohtani * Robinson Cano contract * What's harder in baseball than its looks * Silver lining to injuries * Regrets about workload * Moderating disappointment in not breaking camp with Rays * Hardest part of coming back * Changes in MLB since injuries * A half a Tommy John? * Jonny Venters the hitter * Why Tampa Bay? * Do people ask for advice? Intro * The Band, "Knockin’ Lost John" Interstitial * John Lennon, "Dear John" Outro * Men at Work, "Be Good Johnny" Banter * An article written about Ben Email Questions * Anthony: I assume you've probably gotten a few of these by now, but I'm curious where Dylan Bundy's line today ranks among the worst in recent memory. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher give up 4 homers without recording an out. * Chaim: I don’t know if you guys have seen this poll yet, but our beloved Mike Trout said that his favorite stats was runs scored, RUNS SCORED! I thought this might be interesting to talk about on the podcast. RUNS SCORED!!!! http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180507&content_id=274986480&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb * Jamal: I was browsing through Fangraphs leaderboards and stumbled on Robinson Cano's profile page. It's been 4.5 years since Seattle signed Cano to a 10 year/$240M dollar deal, and with the Cabrera and Pujols deals catching alot of flack lately and already locks as being "albatrosses" I was curious to see how that deal was aging. Through the first 4 years of the deal, Cano has accumulated 17.6 fWAR. He is in his age-35 season and has already been worth 1.1 fWAR through 143 plate appearances. My question here is: has this been a good deal? The Mariners obviously haven't made the postseason since Cano has arrived (and much longer before he signed) and I understand this deal was made under the previous regime. The Mariners currently have a 15.0% chance of making the playoffs via FG, but with their farm system in poor shape and with many of their key players growing older, this may be their best chance to make the postseason for the foreseeable future. It was pretty shocking when the news broke that Seattle had managed to sign Cano, and thus far he appears to have generated a healthy amount of surplus value for the club, but if the team just continues to tread the line between bad and mediocre for the remainder of his contract, how will we look back on this deal when its all said and done? Because thus far, it's hard to call it a bad one. * Mitch M: So there's a lot of stuff in baseball that, to a layman, seems like it should be really easy but is, in actuality, extremely difficult. What do you think most epitomizes that gulf of difficulty? My pick would be checking a swing. It seems like it should be the easiest thing in the world - after all, just stop swinging! - but it's clearly difficult, given how many guys strike out on checked swings. What's your pick? Statblast * Switch hitters debuts through the decades, starting in 1900, 6, 6, 5, 5, 2, 4, 7, 11, 15, 14, 14, and 12 (by percent). * In 1992 20.4 percent of players were switch hitters, currently 14.3%. Notes * A student had to write an feature about another writer, student picked Ben, and pointed out Bens early podcast voice. * Dylan Bundy is first starter to allow 4 home runs without recording an out, 5 times a starter allowed 8 runs before an out, it has happened to Paul Wilson twice in a year. * Ben and Sam talked about the Dylan Bundy hypothetical in Episode 891. * Joc Pederson said batting average looks at batting average, he has a career .224 average but a 115 wRC+. * “As a pitcher the glove is the only protection from something that would cave your skull in" - Jeff * There have been 28 no hitters through 5 this year, 20 through 6, and 9 through 7, all highest since 1968. * James Paxton took just barely 2 minutes to finish the 9th inning. * “Maybe it means that hell be taking longer trips to San Diego to party" - Ben on Matt Harvey to Reds. * Robinson Cano has been worth 158 million dollars of value half way through his contract, which is about 60% of his contract value. * Ben thinks bunting is the hardest thing that looks easiest. * Jeff thinks a throwing in general is harder than it looks. * A half a Tommy John is just reattaching the already moved ligament. Links * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1214-the-three-time-tommy-john/ * https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-vote-for-stats-they-value-most/c-274986480 * https://twitter.com/ThreeTwoEephus/status/993765574537826304 * https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/5/9/17336344/the-year-of-near-no-hitters * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-shohei-ohtani-just-figured-out/ * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jonny-venters-and-the-official-tommy-john-threepeat-club/ Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes Category:Email Episodes